ORLANDO, Fla. — A new tropics forecast is giving confidence in an active, but not super-active, season ahead in the Atlantic.
The Climate Prediction Center issued its latest La Nina/El Nino outlook Thursday, and the forecasters are indicating neutral conditions to continue during the peak of hurricane season.
Waters off the coast of Peru in the central Pacific have been known to impact global weather patterns, including tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.
The latest forecast finds neutral conditions will be likely to continue through late summer and early fall. They give a 56% chance of neutral conditions continuing in the ENSO corridor during the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.
If neutral conditions continue, this would likely lead to an active, but not incredibly active season.
In La Nina years, wind shear in the Main Development Region decreases, leading to more tropical storms and hurricanes.
The opposite occurs in El Nino years, where wind shear is much stronger.
During a neutral cycle, wind shear remains steady in the Main Development Region, but is not exceptionally strong. This will likely lead to some development of tropical systems, but a very active pattern is unlikely.
In the interim, no major activity is expected over the next 7 days. We will have to keep an eye on the Gulf late next week.
Stay with Severe Weather Center 9 for the latest on the tropics all season long.
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