ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida residents can breathe easy for now as the tropics remain relatively quiet heading into late October 2025, but forecasters are keeping a close watch on a couple of areas of interest that could develop over the next week.
This update focuses on the latest Atlantic tropical weather outlook, with emphasis on potential developments and implications for the Sunshine State.
The primary area of concern is a tropical wave in the central Atlantic, currently located about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands and producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
This system is projected to move westward at 15-20 mph, entering the southern Caribbean by the middle of the upcoming week.
According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), there’s only a low 30% chance of development into a tropical depression or storm over the next 7 days, with near 0% chance in the next 48 hours.
The National Weather Service (NWS) in Jacksonville echoes this, noting the 30% probability near the Lesser Antilles late this weekend or early next week.
The vast majority of weather models that simulate development keep the system in the southern Caribbean as a very weak tropical depression or tropical storm.
A few outlier models suggest it could strengthen and turn back toward the northeast, but crucially, no models have it impacting Florida directly at this stage. Regardless of formation, the wave is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands late this weekend, then spread across much of the Caribbean Sea next week—no mentions of effects reaching the U.S. mainland.
Another secondary area of interest exists in the North Atlantic, where a non-tropical low pressure system has a low 10% chance of acquiring subtropical characteristics this weekend before moving over cooler waters early next week.
This poses no risks to Florida or the Caribbean.
It’s still early in the lifecycle of this Atlantic tropical wave, so changes are possible—Florida hurricane season runs through November 30, and vigilance is key during this active 2025 period.
For now, no local impacts are expected in northeast Florida or southeast Georgia.
We’ll continue to monitor and update as the system progresses.
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