Every March, there is always an NCAA tournament team that is glaringly more dangerous than the others on its seed line.
It might be a juggernaut No. 1 seed that is the overwhelming favorite to cut down the nets. Or a mid-tier team that struggled early in the season but surged into March. Or a tournament-proven but criminally underseeded mid-major with a history of making life miserable for highly touted teams from a power conference.
The purpose of this now-annual column is to identify those potential opponents that NCAA tournament teams should want to avoid at all costs. Two years ago, we successfully identified Arkansas before the eighth-seeded Razorbacks toppled Kansas in the second round. Last year, we took some big swings and they didn't really pan out. (Conversely, here are five opponents you should want to see on Selection Sunday.)
This year’s list includes four teams with little in common besides the potential to induce groans from the opponents who have to face them. Let’s start with a projected No. 6 or 7 seed who last lost the day before Super Bowl Sunday.
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BYU Cougars
Record: 23-8, 14-6 Big 12 | Projected seed: 6 or 7
Only a month ago, BYU was on the fringes of the NCAA tournament bubble. The Cougars had followed an underwhelming non-conference performance with a 6-6 start to Big 12 play. They entered the second week of February with one win over an NCAA tournament-caliber opponent and four losses against teams who won’t sniff the field of 68.
Since then, BYU has caught fire, reeling off eight wins in a row to rocket from outside most bracket projections to a potential No. 6 or 7 seed. The Cougars have been college basketball’s second-best team over that stretch, according to Bart Torvik’s rankings. Among the teams they have beaten: Iowa State, Kansas, Arizona and West Virginia.
There are a few key differences between pre-win streak BYU and the current Cougars. On offense, BYU is executing Kevin Young’s modern scheme to perfection and is benefiting from Richie Saunders blossoming into the true go-to scoring threat the program had previously lacked. On defense, Keba Keita has developed into an elite rim protector and Mawot Mag has proven to be a perimeter stopper capable of guarding anyone from point guards to big wings.
Duke Blue Devils
Record: 28-3, 19-1 ACC | Projected seed: 1
Final Four dark horses should hope to avoid Duke’s section of the bracket. The Blue Devils are dream crushers. They’re national title favorites, they’re loaded with top-tier talent and they’re challenging the narrative that a freshmen-driven team can’t win a championship in the era of COVID seniors and 24-year-old transfers.
Duke took advantage of a beleaguered ACC, winning 12 conference games by 20 or more and piling up a historic plus-434-point scoring differential in league play this season. That's the largest in ACC history and among the largest in college basketball history, according to Stathead Basketball. The last team to post a bigger scoring differential in conference play was 2016-17 Gonzaga (plus-471). The last power-conference team to do it was 1953-54 Kentucky (plus-503).
Yes, the ACC is down this season — way down, in fact — but that’s not the only reason for Duke destroying everything its path down the stretch. Ask Illinois. The Illini faced Duke in a rare late-February non-conference game at Madison Square Garden … and lost by 43.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Record: 25-8, 14-4 WCC | Projected seed: 7 or 8
Some unlucky top-two seed is going to be unhappy about a potential matchup with Gonzaga in the second round of the NCAA tournament. The Zags (25-8) have a résumé worthy of a middling seed, yet KenPom and other predictive metrics ranked them in the top 10 in the country even before they beat Saint Mary's in Tuesday night's WCC title game.
The discrepancy is partially a product of how close Gonzaga’s eight losses have been. Three of the eight were in overtime. The other five came by a combined 24 points. All but two came against NCAA tournament-bound opponents. The Zags’ 24.1-point average margin of victory also makes a difference. Only four of their victories all season have been by fewer than 10 points. They trounced Baylor by 38, clobbered Indiana by 16 and won at San Diego State by 13.
Gonzaga enters March having made nine straight Sweet 16s, matching North Carolina (1985-1993) and Duke (1998-2006) for the longest streaks since the NCAA tournament expanded to 64 teams. This Gonzaga team has the talent and NCAA tournament experience to extend that streak. The Zags just have to close out tight games better than they did in the regular season.
UConn Huskies
Record: 22-9, 14-6 Big East | Projected seed: 8
UConn’s season tipped off more than four months ago with Dan Hurley complaining about the two-time reigning national champs being ranked only No. 3 in the AP poll. Then the Huskies went to Maui and dropped three games in three days. Then they hit another rough patch early in conference play and fell out of the AP Top 25 altogether.
This is nowhere near as formidable of a UConn team as the previous two, but the back-to-back national champions will still be a scary draw for someone. The Huskies are rounding into form at the right time thanks to Liam McNeeley getting healthy, Alex Karaban returning to his preseason All-American form and Tarris Reed making strides defending without fouling.
UConn “could very easily be sitting in better position,” Hurley said Saturday, had it not crashed and burned in Maui or given away winnable games at Seton Hall and Villanova. Even so, the Huskies have a chance to play their way out of the 8-9 range with two or more victories at Madison Square Garden.
“Going into New York, our mindset is we have as good a chance to win the Big East tournament as anybody,” Hurley said. “Because it’s March, and this is when we play our best at UConn.”
