ORLANDO, Fla. — We are tracking a tropical low trying to form in the northern Gulf. It only has a 20% chance of development over the next seven days but could bring us heavy rain by Fourth of July weekend regardless if it forms or not.
Just about every forecast model we use is not showing this disorganized area of rain forming into a defined tropical low. Of course since it is so early on this can change.
If it does develop it is much more likely to happen after it crosses through Florida and while it moves up the Gulf stream into the Carolinas.
Every spaghetti model that has been put out on this area so far has it with winds below tropical storm strength. This means at best we would see a tropical depression move north of Ocala and then into the Atlantic before it develops further.
The biggest factor that could help tropical development is the warm water in the northern Gulf right now that is close to 90 degrees between Pensacola and the Big Bend region.
We will continue to monitor this system and have updates over the next few days.
Click here to download our free news, weather and smart TV apps. And click here to stream Channel 9 Eyewitness News live.
©2025 Cox Media Group
